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π€― Economic data sparks market sell off
π Asian economic resurgence incoming
π₯The Great London rise
Before we dive into the macro economics and regional growth forecasts...
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π€― Economic data sparks market sell off?
The economy has had mixed reviews in 2023, although things are certainly looking better than they did during the end of 2022.
Let's run through some of the key drivers that are impacting our global economy as of today π
Although not all good news means good response in the short term, and we have certainly seen that with the global stocks, with them seeing a fall recently.
The MSCI world equity index (.MIWD00000PUS) saw a drop of roughly 1.17%, which may not seem bad but considering this index covers 50 countries, but this is a considerable drop compared to the crypto world.
Further to this, European stocks (.STOXX) fell 1.04%. Although, there is good news around the corner.
U.S. Treasure yields saw a jump with the 10-year yields climbing 3.945% and two-year yields also rising by 4.81%, which to note, is its highest point since early November.
What's moving the numbers?
Well, after the economic data release, it showed that not only did consumer spending increase by 1.8% in January (the biggest increase for nearly two years), the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index increased by 0.6% (the biggest increase in six months), bring it to 5.4% for the 12 month period.
All of this has caused a short term sell off as seen in the MSCI world equity index and European stocks above, but long term this is positive news and a good economic outlook.
What does this mean for the crypto and finance world?
Selling is not always a bad thing, in this case a stock sell off is because we have had better economic news and as a result prices have increased, therefore profits have been taken.
Afterall, if you don't take any profits, you never truly profit, right? So this is not a complete worry as sell offs are common after a big climb, but with economic data looking good, perhaps we could see a more positive 2023?
You can find more information including gold and US dollar price changes belowπ
π Asian economic resurgence incoming?
So, now that we have seen global stocks fall temporarily, but we've seen the U.S. bounce back on their yields, what does the future forecast say elsewhere?
Letβs start with Asia, there's been allot of hype around Asia, especially with China specifically having an economic overhaul which also saw them dump roughly $92B into the finance markets (more on that in our previous newsletter).
According to the IMF, Asia is expected to have a real GDP growth of approximately 4.7% in 2023, which is an increase of 0.9% from 2023.
As you can see, 2023 and 2024 are looking like great growth years, with emerging markets and developing economies taking a huge percentage of that growth. Although Sri Lanka took a huge hit to the economy last year and are predicted to take a hit this year too, growth is looking positive for 2024, which is actually a good sign for crypto and stocks as Sri Lanka recently defaulted on their debts, hence the economic stunt you are seeing.
However, the fact that they are predicted growth in the next few years indicates a growing economy, so if an economy such as Sri Lanka can grow in such diabolical economic conditions, that is an overall positive sign for the financial markets such as stocks and crypto.
This is hugely positive news as Asia play a big part in the economic world, and both the stock and crypto market will also be impacted by Asia, so the more positive the economy, (theoretically) the better the markets should be.
What about the rest of the world?
Global growth is looking pretty positive too, with a growth projection of 2.9% this year, that is fairly positive and we are starting to see economies recover from the global events of recent times.
As you can see, growth is looking great, although this is an interesting area as a MASSIVE 82% is expected to come from emerging markets and developing economies this year, which is an incredibly high percentage.
Here's the formula:
Growth = better economy = more spending = more investments = asset growth = BULLISH π
Okay, so perhaps a little too over the top, but you get the point. This data is important for financial markets as worldwide growth is a good sign, but these are only predictions, so don't get too carried away.
π₯ The Great London rise?
The United Kingdomβs (UK) economy has been scrutinised in recent years with many major decisions, combined with worldwide events that seemed to have put them in a difficult economic position.
Looking at the data, it appears that there may finally be some light within the UK, more specifically London...
London is expected to see growth of 2.6% from 2024 to 2026 which is the highest of any area in the entire UK, with the South East regions coming in a close second at 2.2%.
These numbers could keep the UK expanding at a positive rate and may even steer them out of the recession that they are predicted to enter this year, which they will be desperately hoping to avoid.
How does that impact my investment decisions?
Well, as you've probably caught on from the previous parts of the newsletter, positive economic growth results in more spending, which in turn should see assets like stocks an crypto increase as more money is injected into it.
However, London is looking to become a crypto hub which is massive for the Web3 space, so London leading this charge could be an even more bullish sign as more adoption is vital, but more importantly, a major economy recognising the importance of such technology and opportunity, could spark a bigger ordeal for the entire crypto space!
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Written by Lewis π΅οΈ
DYOR β authors of All Things Flooz newsletter own cryptocurrencies and stocks.
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Not financial or tax advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions.